Posted by There is little intrigue at the top of the Premier League table this season, with Liverpool set to win their first league title since 1989-90. However, the race for the Champions League spots is one of the most competitive ever, with only eight points separating 4th-placed Chelsea from Everton in 11th. Traditional Premier League powerhouses Manchester United, Tottenham and Arsenal lie in-between, and will hope to capitalize on Manchester City’s two-year ban from European competition, which guarantees Champions League football for this season’s 5th-placed team. The four “Big 6” clubs have all disappointed to varying degrees, but will any of them save face and secure a top-5 place?
Chelsea (4th, 45 Points)
Still in the driver’s seat for a Champions League berth despite an alarming slide in recent months, Chelsea will need to improve their form if they are to hold off the chasing pack. After collecting six consecutive league wins from rounds 7-12, an unexpected title push seemed possible in Frank Lampard’s first season. Since then, however, Chelsea have won just 5 of their last 16 Premier League matches, with evident problems at both ends of the pitch.
Chelsea’s goalkeeping situation has dominated the headlines in recent months. Spanish international Kepa Arrizabalaga, who became the world’s most expensive goalkeeper when he signed from Athletic Club for $93 million in the Summer of 2018, has struggled mightily in his second season in West London. Kepa’s save percentage of 55.6% is the worst in the league, and the Spaniard was dropped in favor of veteran Willy Caballero after a disappointing 2-2 draw with Arsenal on January 21. At 38, Caballero is the oldest player in the Premier League this year, and has not justified Lampard’s faith in him. Caballero has conceded 1.8 goals a game in the six matches he has played since January 21, while Kepa was allowing only 1.4. Arrizabalaga came back into the team for the 2-0 FA Cup win over Liverpool on Tuesday and produced a solid performance, but it remains to be seen if he will regain his starting place in the league. At any rate, Kepa’s benching has severely damaged his value, and Chelsea would have trouble selling him for even half of his original price if he were put on the market right now.
Goal-scoring has also been a huge issue. Main center-forward Tammy Abraham has played only once since injuring his ankle towards the end of the Arsenal draw, leaving the inadequate Michy Batshuayi and the little-used Olivier Giroud as his replacements. Giroud has done well since coming into the team, and scored his first Premier League goal of the season against Tottenham in only his seventh appearance. The Frenchmen’s vast experience and savvy link-up play make him an asset, but at 33 he is past his best, and not of the requisite quality to carry the goal-scoring load for a club of Chelsea’s size. Lampard will need his midfielders and wide players to get amongst the goals in order for Chelsea to maintain their grip on 4th.
Beyond their goalkeeping and goal-scoring troubles, Chelsea has displayed a worrying frailty since their promising early season run. They have conceded four goals from the 84th minute or later since the turn of the year, dropping seven precious points in the process. Furthermore, they have the worst home record of any “Big 6” side, with just 6 wins from 14 matches. Although Chelsea host Norwich in round 36, all of their other home matches are tricky. They host Everton, Manchester City and Wolves before the end of the season, while their mid-April match with a Watford side fighting for their lives could be grueling. The difficulty of their schedule, coupled with problems at both ends of the pitch, suggests that Chelsea won’t have enough gas in the tank to secure a Champions League spot.
Prediction: 6th
Manchester United (5th, 42 Points)
There is a growing wave of positivity at Old Trafford, with United currently holding a Champions League place after languishing in mid-table for much of the season. Big-money January signing Bruno Fernandes has hit the ground running, with two goals and two assists in four Premier League matches. Beyond the numbers, Fernandes’ composure and quality has lifted United from the doldrums. Unlike many of his teammates, Fernandes looks like he belongs in a United shirt, and should be a pillar of the team for years to come. Until Fernandes is surrounded with better players, however, United won’t be able to maximize his evident talent. Even though Fernandes was key to United’s crucial 2-0 win at Chelsea a few weeks back, his teammates struggled to get him on the ball in dangerous positions.
Although United still lack quality in midfield and out wide in particular, their defending has been much improved this season. The Red Devils are 5th in goals conceded with 30, with their goals allowed per match of 1.07 representing a significant decrease on the 1.42 goals per match from last season. Even though Harry Maguire has not always justified his eye-watering $97 million price tag, the England defender has made United harder to break down. On the right side of defense, fellow summer signing Aaron Wan-Bissaka has been impenetrable, ranking second in the Premier League for tackles with 97. With star striker Marcus Rashford out until late April, the solid platform United’s defense provides is critical to their Champions League hopes.
Before their 1-1 draw at Everton last weekend, consecutive wins over Chelsea and Watford had many believing that United had turned a corner. However, the win over Chelsea was extremely fortunate, with Maguire lucky not to be sent off midway through the first half for a studs-up kick to Michy Batshuayi’s nether regions when the score was still 0-0. Furthermore, United failed to capitalize on the momentum generated from the back-to-back wins over Tottenham and Manchester City in early December, winning only 3 of their next 9 matches after those results. If United can take four points from their next two matches, which are coincidentally against City and Spurs, they will be strong candidates for fourth place. Poor results against two “Big 6” rivals could bring back questions over manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, and derail a United side that are threatening to rise from the dead.
Prediction: 4th
Tottenham (7th, 40 points)
After a torrid start to the season under Mauricio Pochettino, a return to the Champions League for a fifth consecutive season seemed impossible for Tottenham. Spurs were in 14th place after 12 matches, with their disastrous form precipitating the dismissal of the popular Pochettino. The identity of the Argentinean’s replacement raised eyebrows. Out of a job for more than a year since getting the sack at Manchester United, José Mourinho was chosen to lead Tottenham back up the table.
Mourinho’s appointment seemed borne out of desperation from the beginning. His cautious tactical approach and reticence to promote youth represented a sea change from Pochettino’s philosophy, and the Portuguese seemed sure to clash over transfer spending with penny-pinching Chairman Daniel Levy. Despite these reservations, Mourinho has taken Spurs up to 7th, with 26 points from 16 matches in charge.
When Mourinho’s spell is examined closely, however, it becomes apparent that Tottenham are on a downward spiral. Spurs’ three most convincing performances under Mourinho, 3-2 wins over West Ham and Bournemouth 3-2 and a 5-0 thrashing of Burnley, all came in Mourinho’s first four matches in charge. Although they have continued to pick up results since then, Spurs have struggled for fluency going forward, relying on the brilliance of forward Son Heung-Min for inspiration. With the South Korean out for several weeks with a broken arm, and Harry Kane not expected back until early May, it is difficult to see where the goals are going to come from for Spurs in the final weeks of the season. Attacking midfielder Dele Alli, who recaptured the form of two seasons ago early in Mourinho’s reign, has gone off the boil since then, and reacted petulantly to being subbed off in the recent Champions League match with Leipzig. If Alli cannot replicate the impact of Son and Kane, Spurs will be left to rely on Lucas Moura, who no goals in his last 11 games, and Giovanni Lo Celso, who is yet to score or assist in the Premier League.
Amidst the growing concern over Tottenham’s unconvincing performances, Mourinho will also be worried about a difficult fixture list in the season’s remaining months. Tottenham have the 11th-best away record in the league this season, with only 14 points from 14 matches. They face tough visits to Burnley and Sheffield United in their next two away matches, and also travel to relegation-threatened Bournemouth before the end of the campaign. Fortunately for Spurs, their toughest remaining matches are at home. They host United on March 15th, while Arsenal and Leicester will also travel to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. With Spurs now playing catch-up in the Champions League race after a deflating 3-2 loss to Wolves this past weekend, they will need results in those key home matches to propel themselves into Europe’s top competition.
Prediction: 9th
Arsenal (10th, 37 Points)
Heading into the business end of their worst season since the turn of the century, it is an indictment on the quality of the teams below Liverpool and Manchester City that Arsenal still have a chance of qualifying for the Champions League. The Gunners sleepwalked through the first half of the season under Unai Emery, whose dismissal on November 29th came at least two months too late. Former Gunners captain Mikel Arteta has steadied the ship, tightening up Arsenal’s midfield to make them less susceptible to the counterattack. Furthermore, he has resurrected Shkodran Mustafi, who seemed sure to leave the club this past summer but has produced some of his best performances in an Arsenal shirt since Arteta took over. Under Arteta, Arsenal are conceding a goal per match in the league, while they were allowing 1.5 a game under Emery this season.
Resolving Arsenal’s troubles going forward has proved more challenging. The recent introduction of Dani Ceballos at the base of midfield, alongside a revitalized Granit Xhaka, has made Arsenal’s build-up quicker and more incisive. As a result, attacking midfielder Mesut Özil has been far more effective since Arteta took over. Despite the increased fluidity, Arsenal are still struggling to provide for star striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. It is a testament to the Gabon international’s quality that he is tied with Jamie Vardy for the Golden Boot lead with 17 goals despite usually having no more than one or two quality chances a game. Nicolas Pépé has struck up a good understanding with Aubameyang in recent weeks, while the Gabonese also dovetails well with Bukayo Saka on the left flank. Nevertheless, Arsenal need to build on their goal-scoring exploits against Newcastle (4-0) and Everton (3-2) in order to pass the teams ahead of them.
If the green shoots of recovery began to appear in North London after the consecutive victories over Magpies and Toffees, the shock Europa League loss to Olympiakos was a stark reminder of the scale of the rebuild Arteta still needs to undertake. Despite taking a first-leg advantage home to North London after a battling 1-0 win in Athens, Arsenal turned in a turgid performance at the Emirates Stadium that harkened back to the darkest days of the Emery regime. They were incapable of injecting any pace into their attacking play, and seemed content to slowly pass the ball around the middle third instead of attempting to penetrate Olympiakos’ low block. When the Greek side counterattacked, Arsenal looked worryingly open, with their midfield bypassed on numerous occasions. Even though a spectacular Aubameyang scissor kick in the second half of extra time looked sure to send Arsenal through, Olympiakos scored with just minutes remaining to win the tie on away goals. The late concession, and the paucity of the performance in general, brings back the oft-repeated questions about Arsenal’s mentality.
More than fixing a mental weakness, Arteta needs to solve Arsenal’s inconsistency. They are capable of both the spectacular and the ridiculous, often in the same game. Even though the Gunners still have a chance of claiming one of the two remaining Champions League spots, their terrible start to the season leaves them little room for error. Consequently, it is hard to see them stringing together the run of positive results they need to overtake the teams above them. Besides a visit to Manchester City, Arsenal play only relegation candidates and mid-table Southampton between now and a massive April 13th meeting with Wolves. If they cannot capitalize on the favorable fixture list in the next month, the Gunners will be out of the Champions League for a fourth consecutive season in 2020-21.
Prediction: 8th
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