Posted by Although it gets less attention than the World Cup, the Euro is a more competitive and higher quality international tournament. This was especially true when the tournament was played with 16 teams, which made the qualifiers a brutal process where only the 8 group winners didn’t have to go through a two-legged playoff to make the finals.
However, the tournament expanded to 24 teams before Euro 2016, which made the qualifiers much more forgiving for Europe’s heavyweight teams. The 24-team format has been kept for Euro 2020, with the added wrinkle of 12 host cities to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the Euro, instead of the traditional host nation or host nations. As was the case at Euro 2016, 16 of the 24 teams will qualify for the knockout stages. The upshot is a group stage that will lack tension, with teams only needing 3 points to guarantee a spot in the Round of 16.
Although UEFA’s decision to expand the Euro devalues the group stage of the tournament, it gives ample opportunity for European soccer’s proletariat to compete with the traditional powerhouse countries. These underdog nations will look to emulate Denmark, who were drafted in to Euro 1992 at the last minute and went on to win the tournament. With that in mind, here is an analysis of three teams who are dark horse contenders to go deep into the knockout stages of Euro 2020:
Turkey
1) Odds to Win Euro 2020
+8000 (13th-favorite)
2) Fixture List
vs. Italy Friday, June 12 (Rome)
vs. Wales Wednesday, June 17 (Baku)
vs. Switzerland Sunday, June 21 (Baku)
3) How They Qualified
Drawn in Group H with defending World Cup champions France and Euro 2016 Cinderella Iceland, few expected Turkey to qualify directly for Euro 2020. However, the Turks got off to a flying start in qualifying, winning their first two matches. In round 3, they hosted France in Istanbul, recording a famous 2-0 win that made people sit up and take notice. Although they lost 2-1 at Iceland in round 4, Turkey’s qualification was never in grave danger. Consecutive wins over Andorra, Moldova and Albania left Turkey in a strong position heading into the last three matches. A surprise 1-1 draw in Paris against the French left Turkey needing only a point from their round 9 match at home to Iceland to secure qualification. They did exactly that with a 0-0 draw that saw Turkey qualify for their first major tournament since Euro 2008.
4) The Coach: Senol Günes
Although he was capped 31 times for Turkey and is such a legend at Black Sea club Trabzonspor that their stadium is named after him, Günes has eclipsed his playing achievements during a long and successful coaching career. The former goalkeeper guided his country to the semifinals of the 2002 World Cup, Turkey’s best-ever finish in a major tournament. At club level, he has led Istanbul giants Besiktas to two league titles.
Günes’ second spell in charge of The Crescent Stars has re-established Turkey as a team that deserves respect on the international stage. After taking over in February 2019, he unexpectedly guided the Turks to their first major tournament since EURO 2008. Gunes has favored a 4-3-3 in recent months but is flexible on his set-up based on the opposition. This summer, he is likely to adopt a more cautious approach for Turkey’s opening match against Italy, before fielding a more attack-minded lineup in the matches against Wales and Switzerland.
5) Star Player: Caglar Söyüncü
The 23-year old center-back Söyüncü is enjoying a breakout season. Bought by Leicester in the summer of 2018 from Bundesliga side Freiburg for $23.4 million, Söyüncü struggled for playing time in his first season, making only 4 Premier League starts. However, Söyüncü has been a revelation at the heart of the Foxes’ defense following the big-money departure of Harry Maguire to Manchester United. Leicester boast the league’s best defense after 16 matches, with only 10 goals conceded. Söyüncü has started every game, with his aerial ability and calm passing out from the back making him the linchpin of Leicester’s surprise title push.
Söyüncü has also been a revelation for his country in recent months. He didn’t play in the first three Euro 2020 qualifiers, and also failed to make it off the bench in the 2-1 defeat in Iceland in Round 4. Following that match, Söyüncü became a crucial cog in the Ottoman backline, making four appearances as Turkey only conceded one goal over the final five matches. Competition for a place in the center of the Turkish defense is fierce, with Merih Demiral (Juventus), Kaan Ayhan (Fortuna Dusseldorf), Ozan Kabak (Schalke) and Mert Cetin (Roma) all fighting with Söyüncü. Yet, the Leicester man is now the most important player in Turkey’s rearguard, leading the other talented center-backs to battle each other for a place beside him this summer.
6) X-Factor: Cengiz Under
Much like Söyüncü, Roma winger Under wasn’t heavily involved in Turkey’s qualifying campaign. Injury problems meant that he made only 2 appearances, including a late cameo in the 0-0 draw with Iceland in round 9. However, Under turned in a brilliant performance in his only start of the campaign, scoring the second goal in a 2-0 home win over France in round 3.
Under has exceeded expectations at Roma, who he joined in July 2017 from Istanbul Basksehir. Although he was bought with the future in mind, Under made 32 appearances in all competitions in 2017-18, contributing 8 goals and 2 assists. An injury-hit second half of 2018-19 didn’t prevent him from making 33 appearances and increasing his productivity (6 goals, 9 assists). Before the injury issues he faced last season, Under had been linked with Premier League giants Manchester City, Chelsea and Arsenal. Still only 22, Under has the potential to announce himself as a World Class player this summer, and carry his nation deep into Euro 2020.
7) Prediction: Round of 16
Even though they weren’t expected to qualify automatically for Euro 2020, Turkey defied expectations to finish ahead of Iceland. By taking 4 points from a possible 6 against the French, they showed that their “golden generation” is a match for any side if they are in the mood.
The undoubted strength of this Turkish side is their defense. They conceded a measly 3 goals in their 10 qualifying matches, fewer than any other side. With Leicester center-back Caglar Söyüncü establishing himself as a World-Class talent this season at Leicester and other young defenders such as Merih Demiral and Kaan Ayhan breaking into the senior side, Turkey will be extremely difficult to break down this summer. This defensive solidity could prove crucial to their hopes of advancing out of a difficult group containing Italy, Wales and Switzerland, as they are unlikely to suffer any heavy defeats.
A further boost to Turkish hopes comes from the fact that they will play their last two group games in Baku. The Azeri capital is a 2.5-3 hour flight from Istanbul but is much closer to Turkish fans in the central and eastern parts of the country, meaning that Turkey’s games in Baku will be glorified home matches. This “home-field” advantage will be a factor against Wales and Switzerland, Turkey’s two main rivals to make it out of a group where Italy are the clear favorites to finish first.
Turkey’s stingy defense, coupled with their two matches in Baku, should see them through to the knockout stages. While their rearguard will keep them in any match once there, they may struggle to score the goals required to advance deep into the tournament. While opponents will be weary of Cengiz Under’s dribbling ability, he is not a prolific goalscorer. At center-forward, Cenk Tosun and Burak Yilmaz have been effective for the National Team but Tosun has struggled at Everton since joining in January 2018, while Yilmaz has only played in Turkey and China. It remains to be seen whether or not Tosun and Yilmaz can step up and score the goals required to power their country deep into the tournament.
Ukraine
1) Odds to Win Euro 2020
+8000 (13th-favorite)
2) Fixture List
vs. Netherlands Saturday, June 14 (Amsterdam)
vs. Play-off Winner D or A (Bucharest)
vs. Austria Monday, June 22 (Bucharest)
3) How They Qualified
The Ukrainians had the most impressive qualifying campaign of any Euro 2020 participant. Placed in a difficult Group B with Euro 2016 champion Portugal and a tricky Serbian side, The Yellow and Blue went undefeated in their eight matches, dropping only four points along the way. A credible 0-0 draw in Portugal in round 1 built confidence before the Ukrainians demonstrated their attacking might with a 5-0 thrashing of Serbia in round 3. From there, Ukraine ran away with the group, assuring their spot in Euro 2020 with a round to spare after a deserved 2-1 win over Portugal in round 8.
4) The Coach: Andriy Shevchenko
Quite possibly the best player in Ukrainian history, 2004 Balon D’Or winner Shevchenko has proved equally adept on the touchline as he was when starring at center-forward for AC Milan. “Sheva” took over the National Team job after a disastrous Euro 2016 which saw the Ukrainians finish with 0 points and 0 goals scored after losses to Germany, Northern Ireland and Poland.
Although the National Team post is his first-ever head coaching job, Shevchenko has proved himself to be a skillful tactician. He usually opts for a 4-1-4-1 or 4-3-3 formation that accentuates the technique and creativity of players such as Oleksandr Zinchenko and Andriy Yarmolenko. While Shevchenko rarely strays from a 4-1-4-1/4-3-3, he encourages his players to interchange positions throughout the match, particularly in midfield. Furthermore, he has built an attack that is effective with a target man, usually Gent forward Roman Yaremchuk, or a false nine scheme. The latter strategy was used to great effect in the 2-1 win against Portugal in October, when Shakhtar Donetsk winger Marlos created problems for the Portuguese by popping up all over the attacking third of the pitch.
5) Star Player: Oleksandr Zinchenko
Touted as Ukraine’s next star after his transfer to Manchester City in July 2016, Zinchenko has since established himself as a vital cog in the National Team set-up. A versatile player capable of playing anywhere along the left and in midfield, Zinchenko has played mostly at left-back for City, filling in there for the oft-injured Benjamin Mendy. He has performed capably there for the Citizens, making 69 appearances between 2017/18 and 2018/19.
Although he is just one of many stars at club level, Zinchenko is arguably his nation’s most talented player. Recognizing this, Shevchenko deploys Zinchenko as an attacking midfielder, or as the deepest midfielder when regular starter Taras Stepanenko is out of the team. This allows Zinchenko to get on the ball as much as possible and dictate play. Besides Shevchenko himself, Zinchenko has been the most important element to Ukraine’s transformation from a stodgy, limited side to a team that plays an attractive brand of attacking football based around short passing and triangulations.
6) X-Factor: Ruslan Malinovskyi
Followers of Belgian football will be familiar with Malinovskyi, who contributed 16 goals and 16 assists last year in KRC Genk’s successful title run. His standout performances with The Smurfs earned him a transfer to Serie A surprise package Atalanta, who paid 13.7 million euros for his services. Although Malinovskyi is yet to establish himself in the starting 11 in Bergamo, he has still made 17 appearances so far, including all 5 Champions League matches.
As he spent the fall of 2019 adjusting to Italian football, Malinovskyi was showing his class during Ukraine’s Euro 2020 qualifying campaign. Malinovskyi played in all eight of Ukraine’s group B matches, chipping in with three goals and three assists. He is capable of playing as a number 8 or as a more advanced midfielder, allowing him to comfortably interchange positions with fellow midfielder Oleksandr Zinchenko in front of holding player Taras Stepanenko. Comfortable on the ball, Malinovskyi possesses a wand of a left foot. His set piece delivery is deadly, as evidenced by his fantastic free-kick for his second goal in the 2-0 win over Lithuania in October.
7) Prediction: Quarter-Finals
Ukraine come into this Euro with their strongest side since the one that made the quarterfinals at the 2006 World Cup. Andriy Shevchenko was the star player in that side, and his legendary status could prove crucial to inspiring his troops into a deep run this summer.
Although Ukraine boast important names like Premier League players Zinchenko and Yarmolenko, they are a balanced team that is not reliant on any one player. This is evidenced by the goalscoring figures in qualifying. Eight different players scored for the Ukrainians, with forward Roman Yaremchuk registering a team high four strikes. The Ukrainians are further boosted by their tactical flexibility, with Yaremchuk capable of playing as a target man or coming in centrally from the wings with Marlos up top in a “false nine” position.
Similar to Turkey, Ukraine will benefit from playing their final two group matches close to home. After a challenging opening match in Amsterdam against group heavyweights Holland, Ukraine will play their remaining matches in Bucharest, the capital of neighboring Romania. Ukrainian fans are likely to pour across the border in support of their country. With the crowd likely to be on their side, Ukraine shouldn’t have much trouble with Austria and the winner of Play-Off path D (either Georgia, Kosovo, Belarus, or North Macedonia). From there, they have the quality and tactical understanding to trouble any knockout stage opponent.
Croatia
1) Odds to Win Euro 2020
+2200 (9th-favorite)
2) Fixture List
vs. England Sunday, June 14 (London/Wembley)
vs. Czech Republic Friday, June 19 (Glasgow)
vs. Play-Off Path C Winner Tuesday, June 23 (Glasgow)
3) How They Qualified
Viewed as the clear favorite to win a Group E containing Wales, Slovakia, Hungary and Azerbaijan, Croatia got off to a slow start in qualifying. A narrow 2-1 home win over the Azeris preceded a 2-1 defeat away to Hungary. The Croats recovered well, however, with a 2-1 victory over Wales and a comprehensive 4-0 win away to Slovakia in round 4 setting them on the path to Euro 2020. Although they were embarrassed by a 1-1 draw at Azerbaijan in round 6, which gave the Azeris their only point of the qualifiers, they took 7 points from a remaining 9 against Hungary, Wales and Slovakia to seal qualification.
4) The Coach: Zlatko Dalic
When the little-known Dalic replaced Ante Cacic as Croatia head coach on October 7, 2017, the Croats were in real danger of missing out on Russia 2018. Yet, the former journeyman midfielder inspired his side to a 2-0 win in a do-or-die match in Ukraine to book a play-off spot before a comprehensive 4-1 aggregate victory over Greece assured a place in Russia.
Although Dalic had come to Croatia’s rescue in their time of need, few would have expected him to guide the tiny Balkan nation to their first ever major tournament final at Russia 2018. Although they were beaten by France 4-2 in the final, Croatia delighted supporters and neutrals alike with their forward-thinking 4-2-3-1 formation that focused on short, sharp interchanges in midfield and the dynamic wing play of Ante Rebic and Ivan Perisic.
Dalic has repeated the same tactics during the qualifying process for Euro 2020, aided by the continued presence of star names such as Luka Modric, Domagoj Vida and the aforementioned Perisic. Nevertheless, Dalic has introduced some fresh faces throughout qualifying, with Nikola Vlasic and Bruno Petkovic the most notable names. Although there is no indication of Dalic wanting to step down after Euro 2020, regardless of how his side perform he should attract the interest of important European clubs, as opposed to the multiple Middle Eastern outfits that he managed before being hired by Croatia.
5) Star Player: Luka Modric
The 2018 Balon D’Or will relish the trip to London, where he made his name at Tottenham Hotspur. One of the best midfielders of his generation, Modric is an elegant ballplayer capable of dictating matches from the base of the midfield or higher up in a traditional number 10 position. A winner of four Champions League titles at Real Madrid, Modric has also turned in stellar performances for his country down the years. He is Croatia’s second most-capped player with 127 appearances, and could pass Darjo Srna’s record of 134 if Croatia get deep into the knockout stages this summer.
In possibly his last major international tournament, Modric will hope to repeat the form he showed at the 2018 World Cup, where he was voted Best Player. However, Modric has not had a great start to the 2019/20 season for Madrid. He has missed six games with Los Merengues so far this campaign due to muscle injuries and a quad contusion suffered in Croatia’s October qualifier with Wales. As a result, he has played only 42% of the available minutes in La Liga, while he has participated in only 30% of Madrid’s Champions League campaign so far. With the breakthrough of Uruguayan Federico Valverde accompanied by a Toni Kroos in redemptive form after a poor 2018/19, Modric may struggle to find his way back into the starting 11. If that is the case, Croatian fans will hope that Modric is well rested rather than rusty come this summer
6) X-Factor: Bruno Petkovic
Following the retirement of talismanic striker Mario Mandzukic from international football after the World Cup, it was unclear if his offensive production could be replaced. Mandzukic found the net 33 times in 89 matches for Croatia, putting him second behind Davor Suker on the list of top scorers for the Balkan nation.
After Manduzkic’s retirement, few would have expected Bruno Petkovic to replace him as the preferred number 9 for Dalic’s Croatia. Yet, the Dinamo Zagreb forward made his senior bow in a March 2019 friendly and was instrumental in Croatia’s Euro 2020 qualifying campaign, registering 4 goals and 1 assist in 7 qualifiers.
Still only 25, Petkovic has recovered well from a failed spell in Italy, where he did not score a single goal in 42 Serie A appearances with Catania, Bologna and Hellas Verona. Boasting an imposing 6’4’’ frame, Petkovic provides a similar physical presence to Mandzukic, which has enabled Croatia to display a tactical continuity between the 2018 World Cup and the Euro 2020 qualifiers. With tricky wingers Ante Rebic and Ivan Perisic still in the side, Petkovic should get all the service he needs to add to his impressive goals-to-games ratio at international level.
7) Prediction: Semi-Finals
While there is an evident temptation to call Croatia’s performance in Russia 2018 a one-off, they are a team capable of challenging for international silverware once again at this Euro. Mandzukic’s goals and presence up top will undoubtedly be missed, but Bruno Petkovic has not disappointed as his replacement, and crucially allows Croatia to play the same brand of attacking football that was so successful in Russia.
Further back, an already fearsome midfield has been strengthened by the addition of 22 year-old Everton cast-off Nikola Vlasic, who scored 3 goals in 6 qualifiers. Vlasic’s rise will put pressure on Ivan Rakitic, who has struggled for game time for Barcelona so far this season. Names such as Luka Modric, Marcelo Kovacic and Marcelo Brozovic are proven performers at the highest levels of the game, and will ensure that Croatia control the tempo of nearly every match they play.
Although their defense is a potential weak point, the Croats will benefit from the understanding between center-backs Dejan Lovren and Domagoj Vida, who started together in Russia. Even though the summer of 2018 ended in disappointment, that experience will have hardened the Croatians, who will not be cowed regardless of who they face this summer. That big-match nous, coupled with an interesting mix of veterans and youth, means that this Croatia side could yet make another major international tournament final.
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