Posted by On Sunday night, América and Chivas will meet at the Estadio Azteca for another edition of the Clásico Nacional, the biggest rivalry game in Mexico. The pressure is always huge for the two most popular teams in Mexico when they meet each other. However, this meeting will be especially important for both sides.
During the Copa MX Round of 16 in midweek, América suffered a shock elimination at the hands of second division side FC Juárez. The result leaves América with only the league to fight for in the first semester of the year. If América fails to win the Apertura 2018, Miguel Herrera will have failed to win a trophy in his first three seasons with the team since returning for his second spell at the helm. Without the Apertura 2018 title, Herrera will likely depart at the end of the season. A loss at home to Chivas would send the club into crisis and raise serious doubts about the team’s ability to navigate the liguilla.
Fortunately for América, the 20 points they have accrued so far in the league sees them in second place in the standings, with a liguilla spot almost assured regardless of the result against Chivas. The same cannot be said for Guadalajara’s most famous club. Chivas come into the match in 10th place in the standings on 14 points. Although they are just one point from a liguilla qualifying spot, a loss at América would make liguilla classification very difficult. Furthermore, Chivas’ midweek cup defeat to Pumas leaves them with just the league to play for before they contest the Club World Cup in December. If they cannot make the liguilla this season, they would go into the Club World Cup bereft of confidence and without any positive momentum.
Nevertheless, Chivas will take encouragement from the location of Sunday’s match. Instead of playing at home, where they have won only two of their last 25 league matches, Chivas will travel to América’s Estadio Azteca. Chivas have won 10 of their 14 league points so far this season on the road, with their most impressive display of the season coming in their last away match when they won 4-2 at Monterrey. In that match, Chivas were without the starting midfield pairing of Michael Pérez and Orbelín Pineda. In their place, youngsters Fernando Beltrán and Alan Cervantes received their first league starts of the season and performed admirably. They were helped by an astute formation change from coach Jose Saturnino Cardozo. Instead of lining up in their usual 4-2-3-1, Chivas played with five at the back and a flat four in midfield, which gave ample support to Beltran and Cervantes. With Pérez and Pineda unlikely to come back into the starting lineup for this match, Cardozo is likely to stick with the 5-4-1 formation.
Miguel Herrera typically reveals his lineup during his Friday press conference in the lead-up to the match. This time, however, he has kept quiet about the players he will send out at the Estadio Azteca. Summer signing Roger Martínez came back from injury to start against Juárez in midweek, and is likely to come into the starting lineup up top alongside Oribe Peralta. 20 year-old Jorge Sánchez should start at left-back over Carlos Vargas. The major doubt is on the flanks, where Herrera has not settled on two clear starters so far this season. With Diego Lainez out with an ankle sprain, Cecilio Dominguez, Renato Ibarra and Andrés Ibargüen will fight it out for two spots. Although there are some doubts about the personnel he will use in this match, Herrera is unlikely to deviate from his tried and true 4-4-2 formation.
Although any Clásico Nacional creates huge expectation among fans of Mexican soccer, this match is more likely to be a dull stalemate than an instant classic. With so much on the line, a loss for either team would be catastrophic. Even though both teams will want to win, a draw would suit both sides. Even though Herrera is not a conservative coach, he is a much more defensive coach now than he was before and during his first spell with América. Cardozo, meanwhile, has been more measured tactically than the aggressive Matías Almeyda, with Chivas now playing a more direct style. The disposition of both coaches, coupled with the importance of this match, means that a 1-1 draw is a distinct possibility.
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