Posted by Here is my preview of the World Cup semifinals, where France will take on Belgium and England will meet Croatia.
France vs. Belgium
Tuesday, Krestovsky Stadium, Saint Petersburg
Western Europeans France and Belgium will face off for the 74th time on Tuesday in Saint Petersburg in what can be considered a World Cup Final played a round early. The winner of this match will be the favorite to win the title against either England or Croatia. Both France and Belgium seem to be getting stronger as the tournament progresses, with Belgium turning in their best performance so far in defeating Brazil 2-1 in the quarterfinals, while France dispatched Uruguay 2-0 in their last match.
Both teams can call on an enviable array of talent, with Belgium possessing Premier League stars such as Eden Hazard, Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku. France possess one of world football’s best generations of young players, with the 19-year-old Kylian Mbappé already a world star. Although France has the third youngest squad in the tournament, with an average age of only 26, coach Didier Deschamps can also call on established names such as forward Antoine Griezmann and midfielder Paul Pogba.
After taking over for Marc Wilmots in September of 2016, Belgium coach Roberto Martinez introduced an attacking 3-4-2-1 system that placed attacking winger/midfielder Yannick Ferreira-Carrasco at left-wing back. In the team’s first four games at the World Cup, this formation was highly successful in attack. Belgium scored 12 goals in their first four matches, making them the tournament’s top scorers heading into the quarterfinals. However, they were badly exposed defensively against Japan in their round of 16 matchup, going down 2-0 in the second half of that match before a furious comeback gave them a 3-2 win.
In response to his team’s defensive flimsiness, Martinez changed to a 4-3-3 for the quarterfinal against Brazil, bringing in Marouane Fellaini and Nacer Chadli for Dries Mertens and Ferreira-Carrasco. This change gave Belgium more solidity. Defensive midfielder Fellaini partnered Axel Witsel at the base of the midfield, allowing Kevin De Bruyne to push forward into a false 9 position. Playing on the left wing, Chadli provided more defensive cover for full-back Jan Verthongen than Ferreira-Carrasco had provided against Japan.
While Martinez’s changes made Belgium harder to break down, they also boosted the team’s offensive potential. By pushing De Bruyne forward from a deep midfield position, Martinez placed his three most talented attacking players (De Bruyne, Eden Hazard and Romelu Lukaku) closer together. Playing as the three forward players in the 4-3-3 formation, De Bruyne, Hazard and Lukaku wreaked havoc on the Brazilian defense, showing devastating speed and combination play on the counterattack. Hazard, in particular, was in inspired form. The Belgian captain completed all 10 of his attempted take-ons against Brazil, the most by any player with a 100% success rate in any World Cup match since 1966.
France come into this match with a more settled formation. After their first group stage match against Australia, coach Didier Deschamps switched from a 4-3-3 back to a 4-2-3-1, which they had success with at the tail end of EURO 2016. This formation change saw Olivier Giroud come in for Ousmane Demebélé to play the role of target man, with Antoine Griezmann playing behind him as a withdrawn forward. Although he is his team’s co-top scorer with three strikes, Griezmann has not been at his best so far in Russia, with two of those goals coming from the penalty spot. With the more combative Blaise Matuidi taking up an advanced role on the left hand side and Giroud being relied on more for his hold up and link play than his goalscoring, France will need Griezmann to show up against Belgium.
Although France is the more established footballing power, having won the World Cup on home soil in 1998, their relative youth puts the pressure on the Belgians for this match. In their quarterfinal against Uruguay, 7 of France’s 11 starters were 25 or younger. The nucleus of their team has multiple World Cups ahead of them.
In contrast, this could well be the last World Cup for Belgian stars like Vincent Kompany (32 years old), Jan Verthongen (31), Marouane Fellaini (30) and Axel Witsel (29). At the 2014 World Cup and EURO 2016, Belgium’s golden generation of talent made them a dark-horse contender. Having made their first World Cup semifinal since Mexico 1986, the onus is on them to finally take advantage of their golden generation before it is too late.
Prediction: Belgium to advance
England vs. Croatia
Wednesday, Luzhniki Stadium, Moscow
Having come into the tournament with low expectations back home given their disappointing performances in the 2014 World Cup and EURO 2016, England have surprised many onlookers by qualifying for their first semifinal since 1990. In front of them is a Croatia side playing in only their second semifinal since gaining independence, and which is looking to qualify for their first ever World Cup Final.
England’s strength throughout this tournament has been set pieces. The imposing aerial presence of players such as Harry Maguire and John Stones has combined effectively with precise delivery from Ashley Young and Kieran Trippier. As a result, 5 of England’s 11 goals so far in Russia have come from corners or free kicks. Encouragingly for the Three Lions, Croatia has struggled defending set pieces this World Cup. Denmark’s goal in the first minute in their Round of 16 matchup with Croatia came from a long throw-in, while Russia’s Mario Fernandes was left unmarked just outside the six-yard box to head home in the 115th minute of Croatia’s quarterfinal against Russia. The fact that these two concessions came at the very beginning and end of the two matches suggests that concentration is a problem for the Croats when defending set pieces.
While England will be hoping to profit from Croatia’s deficient set piece defending, they will also have to be careful when Croatia are presented with dead ball opportunities. England have conceded two goals so far this tournament from set pieces (to Felipe Baloy of Panama and Yerry Mina of Colombia), and Croatia’s second goal in their quarterfinal with Russia came from a Domagoj Vida header off a corner. Besides Vida, Croatia have players such as Mario Mandzukic and Dejan Lovren that can pose an aerial threat in the opponent’s box.
The game’s key battle could be fought in the midfield. Croatia has kept the ball more than their opponent in four of their five matches in this World Cup so far, with the 65% of possession that they enjoyed in the Quarterfinal against Russia being a tournament high for them. With two of the game’s most technical players in Luka Modric and Ivan Rakitic patrolling the midfield, Croatia are likely to hog the ball again against England. Croatia’s ability to control the ball could be increased if Marcelo Brozovic is chosen from the start, as he was against Denmark. This would give Croatia more defensive cover in midfield and push Modric into the number 10 position.
Throughout the tournament, England coach Gareth Southgate has only played with one holding midfielder in Jordan Henderson. With Modric, Rakitic and potentially Brozovic in midfield, there is the potential for England to be overrun in the middle of the park. The defensive work of Jesse Lingard and Dele Alli in tracking back will be crucial to England’s hopes.
Southgate has employed a 3-5-2 formation during this tournament, with Kyle Walker, who plays right-back at club level, played as a third center-back alongside Harry Maguire and John Stones. While the formation has been successful so far, particularly in allowing right wingback Kieran Trippier to roam forward, England’s back-line has yet to be truly tested.
England faced a second-string Belgium side in their final group stage match, while round of 16 opponent Colombia was missing star attacking midfielder James Rodriguez. In response to the absence of Rodriguez, Colombia coach Jose Pekerman went more defensive, playing three holding midfielders, which left attackers Radamel Falcao, Juan Cuadrado and Juan Fernando Quintero isolated. The Three Lions will face a much sterner test against Croatia, with center-forward Mario Mandzukic joined by the incisive wing-play of Ivan Perisic and Ante Rebic.
Prediction: Croatia to advance
Just for Kicks 