Posted by With the group stage of the World Cup having come to a close, the struggles of the tournament favorites has been one of the biggest stories so far. Before the first match of group play, Brazil, Germany, Spain, France and Argentina were considered the five main contenders for the Jules Rimet Trophy. Yet, with all of these teams having finished group play, these traditional powerhouses have not had it all their way.
Through the first round of group stage matches, France was the only one of the five teams to win. The second round of group play saw Brazil, Germany and Spain collect narrow wins, while Argentina was spanked 3-0 by a Luka Modric and Ivan Rakitic-inspired Croatia side. The final group stage matchday saw one of the biggest shocks in World Cup history, as reigning World Cup champions Germany were eliminated in the group stages for the first time since 1938 after a 2-0 loss to South Korea. Although the best sides tend to play better as the tournament progresses, the early troubles faced by the favorites has opened up the tournament for the second-tier contenders performing at a high level. Below I will analyze the chances of three of these teams to go deep into the tournament and even win the World Cup.
Uruguay
Drawn into the easiest group of this World Cup, Uruguay were expected to easily advance through the group stage. Although the South Americans were only able to record narrow 1-0 wins over inferior opponents Egypt and Saudi Arabia in their first two matches, they saved their best performance for last, beating hosts Russia 3-0 with a goal each from Luis Suárez and Edinson Cavani. Suárez’s strike was his second in as many games, while Cavani’s goal was his first in this World Cup. Having their two star forwards in good goal-scoring form heading into the knockout stages is a positive omen for the Uruguayans.
Although Uruguay possess two of the world’s premier marksmen, their defense is arguably just as strong. Led by the Atlético Madrid center-back pairing Diego Godín and Jose María Giménez, Uruguay did not concede a goal during the group stage, permitting only six shots on goal. Under coach Óscar Washington Tabárez, the South Americans have played a reactive, vertical style that focuses on defensive solidity and counterattacking through their dangerous forwards. With Tabárez having been in charge since 2006, this style of play is deeply ingrained in his players, who benefit from the continuity and experience he provides from the bench.
Traditionally, the midfielders in Tábarez’s Uruguay have been more combative than creative. Players such as Egidio Arévalo Ríos and Diego Pérez were known more for their destructive qualities than their ability to build-up play. However, in recent years Uruguay has begun to produce ball-playing midfielders such as Rodrigo Betancur and Matías Vecino, which has allowed them to circulate the ball better in midfield and provide better service to their front two of Suárez and Cavani. However, defensive solidity has not been sacrificed for this increased fluidity. With backup center-back Sebastián Coates starting in place of the injured Gímenez for the team’s final group stage match, Tabárez brought Lucas Torreira into midfield to join Betancur, Vecino and Nahitan Nández. Uruguay duly shut out Russia, allowing only one shot on target and three shots in total.
While the Uruguayans are fielding a more expansive and inexperienced midfield at this World Cup, they still boast impressive experience throughout their starting 11. Five of the team’s starting 11 for their three group stage matches (Fernando Muslera, Diego Godín, Martín Cáceres, Suárez and Cavani) are veterans of the team’s run to the semifinals of the 2010 World Cup and their victory in the 2011 Copa América. This know-how makes the Uruguayans a very dangerous team to face in the knockout stages.
England
After repeated World Cup disappointments culminated with elimination from Brazil 2014 after two group stage matches, England have brought to Russia a squad with few holdovers (five) and the second-youngest average age of any at the tournament (26 years old). As a result, many of the players are not burdened by the failures in previous tournaments. In addition, negative results in previous major tournaments meant that expectations for this England team heading into the World Cup were lower than they had been in the past, further reducing the pressure on this group of players.
This sense of renewal is personified by Harry Kane, who is the youngest captain in this World Cup. Following his double against Tunisia in England’s opening match, Kane bagged a hat-trick against Panama, making him the tournament’s top scorer after two rounds of matches. Furthermore, Kane became only the third England player, after Geoff Hurst and Gary Lineker, to score a World Cup hat-trick for the Three Lions.
While Kane has been in remarkable goal-scoring form in Russia, England have also proved to be dangerous from set-pieces. Excluding the two penalties tucked away by Kane against Panama, England have scored four set piece goals in their three games so far. Center-backs John Stones and, in particular, Harry Maguire have imposed themselves in the opponent’s box, consistently getting their heads to balls in the area. The aerial prowess of Stones and Maguire has been accompanied by quality delivery, normally provided by right wing-back Kieran Trippier. In the first match against Tunisia, Trippier created six chances, making him the highest chance creator at the tournament after one round of matches.
Although England were the World Cup’s joint-highest scorers after two rounds of matches, excitement regarding their attacking prowess should be tempered. In their first match, with the score at 1-1 in the second half, they struggled to break down a packed Tunisia defense. As the match wore on, England resorted to hopeful crosses from the right-hand side, and failed to get to the byline or work the ball through Tunisia’s massed ranks. Furthermore, England’s six-goal haul in their second match came against a Panama team participating in their first World Cup, with many having expected them to struggle in Russia.
Although Kane’s purple patch in front of goal is encouraging, England will likely need to find goals from other players if they are to make a deep run in this World Cup. Unfortunately for the Three Lions, the three most attacking starters behind Kane (Dele Alli, Raheem Sterling and Jesse Lingard) have six goals between them in 80 England appearances. These three will likely have to find their shooting boots in order to propel England into the final stages of this World Cup.
Belgium
Boasting a squad replete with top-level talent, Belgium was a dark-horse pick to advance into the final rounds of both the 2014 World Cup and EURO 2016. However, although then-coach Marc Wilmots could choose from an incredibly deep pool of quality players, particularly in attack, Belgium underperformed in both of those tournaments. As a result, after EURO 2016 Wilmots was replaced by ex-Everton and Wigan coach Roberto Martinez.
Under Wilmots, Belgium rarely varied from a 4-2-3-1, a formation that failed to get the most from their attacking players. For example, starting center-forward Romelu Lukaku only managed 3 goals in 10 games played between Brazil 2014 and EURO 2016. Since taking charge of The Red Devils, Martinez has introduced a more adventurous 3-4-3, which has improved Belgium’s offensive output. The Belgians registered 43 goals in 10 qualifying matches, setting a record for the most scored in a single European qualifying group for a World Cup or EURO. Martinez has also improved Lukaku’s form, as the Manchester United man has managed 4 goals in 3 games so far in Russia.
Given that Belgium have crashed out in the quarterfinals of their last two major tournaments, a realistic expectation for this team would be to make at least the semifinals of this World Cup. However, there are multiple factors that could hurt Belgium’s chances of accomplishing this goal. Firstly, although Martinez’s 3-4-3 guarantees goals, Belgium has been leaky at the back. Yannick-Ferreira Carrasco, an attacking midfielder/winger by trade who lines up at left wing-back under Martinez, regularly shirks his defensive duties. Furthermore, the back line as a whole has not looked watertight during the group stage, particularly in the second match against Tunisia, when they conceded two goals and many more clear-cut chances to the North Africans.
Besides Belgium’s questionable defense, they have not been tested against top-level competition. Martinez’s team has not played a side ranked inside FIFA’s top six since his first match in charge, against Spain way back in September 2016. Although their round of 16 opponents Japan are not of the highest caliber, if they advance to the quarterfinals, as expected, they would likely face tournament favorites Brazil. While Belgium certainly has the ability to overcome the South Americans, it is difficult to gauge whether they will actually be able to so.
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