FIFA World Cup 2018 Group H Preview

Here is my preview of Group H, which sees teams from four different continents battling in what has the potential to be the most open group in the tournament.

Predicted Standings:

1) Colombia

2) Senegal

3) Poland

4) Japan

Colombia

Schedule:

Japan June 19 (Saransk)

Poland June 24 (Kazan)

Senegal June 28 (Samara)

Four years after their best-ever performance in a World Cup at Brazil 2014, Colombia has a team capable of again making the quarterfinals and perhaps going even deeper in the tournament. Brazil 2014 was a breakout tournament for James Rodriguez, whose impressive performances won him the golden boot and earned him a 76 million euro move to Real Madrid. Although James struggled to break his way into Madrid’s starting 11 during his last two seasons in white, he has performed strongly in his debut season with Bayern Munich leading up to this tournament, registering 8 goals and 13 assists in 44 appearances across all competitions. Given the freedom by coach José Pekerman to float across the front of the attack, Los Cafeteros will rely heavily on James in Russia. This is unsurprising given that James either scored or assisted on 48% of Colombia’s goals in World Cup Qualifying (6 goals and 4 assists).

Any chances that James is able to engineer are likely to be converted by Radamel Falcao, who will be participating in his first World Cup after missing-out in Brazil because of a cruciate ligament tear. Colombia’s captain and all-time top scorer with 29 goals in 73 games, Falcao will be expected to carry the goal-scoring burden for his team, and represents a significant upgrade on Teofilo Guiterrez, Colombia’s starting forward in Brazil.

In addition to the quality of their two most recognizable players, a further positive for the Colombians is the experience and continuity that their coach José Pékerman provides. Pékerman will be coaching in his third World Cup in Russia, having previously taken charge of Argentina in Germany 2006 and Colombia in Brazil 2014. In contrast, Russia 2018 will be the first World Cup for the other three head coaches in the group (Adam Nawalka, Aliou Cissé and Akira Nishino). Furthermore, Pekerman is the longest-tenured head coach in Group H, having taken over the Colombian National Team in January 2012. This superior World Cup experience and knowledge of his players could make the difference for the South Americans in any tight matches that might arise during the group stage.

Finally, Colombia will have a significant advantage over the other Group H teams in terms of travel commitments. Colombia will have to travel only 376 miles as the crow flies during the group stage, with journeys from Saransk to Kazan (191 miles) and Kazan to Saransk (185 miles). In contrast, Poland will have to travel 974 miles, Senegal will log 1,361 miles and Japan 1,504. When Colombia face Senegal in the third match, the nearly 1,000-mile difference in distance traveled between the teams could be a factor.

Senegal

Schedule:

Poland June 19 (Moscow)

Japan June 24 (Yekaterinburg)

Colombia June 28 (Samara)

In their first-ever World Cup match back in Korea/Japan 2002, Senegal recorded a shock 2-0 win over defending World Cup champions and former colonizer France. The Lions of Teranga rode the momentum from the surprise victory all the way to the quarterfinals, where they were eventually eliminated by Turkey.

With Russia 2018 representing the West African country’s second World Cup participation, Senegal’s first match will be crucial to determining whether or not they make it out of this group. Going up against a Poland side that could be their direct rival for second place, a victory in their first game would give Senegal every chance of qualifying for the round of 16.

Senegal has the benefit of being able to field proven performers from Europe’s biggest leagues along the spine of their side. Center-back Kalidou Koulibaly is the rock at the heart of Napoli’s defense, while in midfield Badou N’diaye and Idrissa Gueye were starters on Premier League teams this past season. These three players helped Senegal concede only three goals during their six matches in Group D of the third round of CAF World Cup qualifying.

Up front, Liverpool man Sadio Mané, coming off a season that brought 20 goals and a stand-out performance in the Champions League final, will be Senegal’s main threat. However, it is the paucity of goal-scoring potential exhibited by the players likely to surround him up front that should give the Senegalese cause for concern. Center-forward Diafra Sakho scored only 12 goals in his last 45 appearances for West Ham, leading to his sale to Rennes in January 2018. Following his move to France, Sakho made 7 appearances, scoring a further 2 goals. Out wide, Ismaila Sarr and M’baye Niang are coming off of 4 and 5 goal seasons, respectively. If Senegal are forced to rely solely on moments of brilliance from Mané to win them games, they may struggle to make it out of a competitive Group H.

Poland

Schedule:

Senegal June 19 (Moscow)

Colombia June 24 (Kazan)

Japan June 28 (Volgograd)

It is difficult to talk about Poland without discussing Robert Lewandowski, Poland’s all-time leading scorer with 52 goals in 93 games and perhaps the greatest Polish player of all time. Nevertheless, Lewandowski has failed to make his mark on the two previous major international tournaments he has participated in, scoring only 1 goal in 3 games at EURO 2012 and 1 goal in 5 games at EURO 2016. However, if Lewandowsi’s performance in 2018 FIFA World Cup Qualification is anything to go by, he is intent on reversing his fortunes on the international stage. The Bayern Munich man scored 16 goals in the qualifiers for Russia 2018, setting a record for most goals in a UEFA World Cup qualifying cycle. Lewandowski’s strikes represented a staggering 57% of Poland’s total output, with no other Polish player scoring more than 3 goals during the qualifiers.

Yet, had Napoli forward Arkadiusz Milik not been injured for the majority of Poland’s qualification, it is likely that he would have come closer to matching Lewandowski’s production than his teammates did. After coming back from his second cruciate ligament rupture in two seasons in early March, Milik scored 4 goals in 12 appearances for the Neopolitans, with 10 of those appearances coming as a substitute.

Although Milik started every match for Poland at Euro 2016, his limited game time for Napoli over the course of the 2017-2018 season, and the fact that he did not complete the full 90 minutes once after his return, suggests that coach Adam Nawalka may choose to use him as an impact substitute rather than a starter. Milik came off the bench at the start of the second half of Poland’s June 8^th friendly against Chile, while he was played from the start alongside Lewandowski in a 4-4-2 in the team’s final World Cup warm-up against Lithuania. Regardless of when Nawalka chooses to deploy him, Milik will be a dangerous secondary goal-scoring threat for the Poles.

Poland’s ability to find a source of goals outside of Lewandowski could prove crucial to their hopes of making it out of Group H given the defensive issues that they had throughout qualification. At EURO 2016, Poland’s defense was the backbone of their run to the quarterfinals, conceding only 2 goals in 5 games and no goals during the group stage. In contrast, the Poles shipped 14 goals in 10 UEFA World Cup qualifying Group E games, more than any other group winner in the UEFA qualifiers.

Japan

Schedule:

Colombia June 19 (Saransk)

Senegal June 24 (Yekaterinburg)

Poland June 28 (Volgograd)

Participating in their sixth World Cup, all of which they have qualified for consecutively, Japan will be looking to match their performances in 2002 and 2010, where they made it through to the Round of 16. However, to do so they will likely need to get a result in their first match against Colombia, to whom they lost 4-1 in their final match at Brazil 2014 on the way to recording only one point in three games. Given the managerial upheaval that has beset Samurai Blue in recent months, it is unlikely they will be able to do so.

In March 2015, the Japanese Football Association hired Vahid Halihodzic to take over the national team. The Bosnian coach, who led Ivory Coast through qualification for South Africa 2010 before helping Algeria to the Round of 16 at Brazil 2014, moved away from the traditional Japanese style of short passing and combination play. Instead, Halihodzic favored a counterattacking system based on rigid discipline and fighting for the ball. The controversy generated over Halihodzic’s tactical changes was exacerbated by his decision to drop star names such as Keisuke Honda and Shinji Kagawa from the starting line-up.

Issues with the Bosnian’s combative personality and tactical tweaks came to a head following a 4-1 loss to regional rivals South Korea in the East Asian Cup in December 2017. Further unconvincing performances in the March friendlies against Mali and Ukraine led to Halihodzic’s dismissal just two months before the start of the World Cup. This left Halihodzic’s replacement, Akira Nishino, with very little time to work with and improve the team.

Since taking over, Nishino has voiced his desire to reintroduce a more traditional Japanese style of play, while giving his attacking players more freedom to express themselves on the field. However, with only two months to work with, it is unlikely that Nishino will be able to fully implement a Japanese style of play after three years of Halihodzic’s more stringent tactics. Therefore, Japan is left heading into this World Cup without a clear identity, and they don’t possess the individual quality to overcome this lack of a well-defined style.