Posted by Here is my preview of the upcoming Liga MX Liguilla quarterfinals:
• Toluca (1) vs. Morelia (8)
Result of Clausura 2018 Matchup: 0-1 Toluca (Round 15)
This tie is a rematch of last season’s Liguilla, when both teams won their home game 2-1, which saw Morelia advance by virtue of being the higher seed. However, this season has seen Toluca collect seven more points than last season’s 29 on the way to the Superliderato. In contrast, Morelia collected five fewer points in the Clausura 2018 than in the Apertura 2017, and were only assured their Liguilla spot on the final matchday thanks to Pachuca’s draw at home with Atlas. Although Monarcas possess one of the league’s most consistent goal-getters in the shape of Raúl Ruidíaz, they perhaps rely on him too heavily, as he has been responsible for over 40% of their goals scored in this Clausura. In contrast, five of Toluca’s starting 11 (Luis Quiñones, Rubens Sambueza, Pablo Barrientos, Rodrigo Salinas and Fernando Uribe) have scored at least two goals this Clausura, and their top scorer (Quiñones) accounts for only 21% of their total output. Furthermore, Toluca is also a more balanced team when it comes to creating openings in the final third. The Red Devils play with two number 10s, Barrientos and Sambueza, both of whom are in the top 10 in the league in passes received. In contrast, Morelia is over-reliant on Diego Valdés to control their attack. The Chilean international is 2nd in the league in both passes received and touches on the ball.
A further point in favor of the Choriceros is that, by virtue of being the higher seed in this tie, they will play the second leg at home at their typical start time (noon Central). As if Toluca not having lost a home game all season was intimidating enough for visiting sides, the combination of the high altitude of the Nemesio Diez coupled with the often suffocating mid-day heat makes Toluca’s stadium a fortress.
Prediction: Toluca advances
•América (2) vs. Pumas (7)
Result of Clausura 2018 Matchup: 0-0 in Estadio Universitario (Round 3)
Unquestionably the most enticing of the Liguilla quarterfinals, there will be a Clásico Capitalino, one of the biggest and most historic rivalries in the league, in a Liguilla for the first time since the Apertura 2015. Pumas is back in the Liguilla after two seasons away, including a lamentable Apertura 2017, where they accrued only 13 points and finished dead last in the league. In terms of points, Pumas have gone nine better this term, assuring their Liguilla spot on the last day with a draw at home to Querétaro. Both of these teams had strong starts to the season, with Pumas going unbeaten in their first six matches (four wins and two draws), while América did not lose until round 12 (six of those 11 games were draws). However, after round 6, Pumas had to wait until round 15 to collect their next win (at home to Puebla), while América has struggled in the goal-scoring department since their first loss, with starting center-forward and Mexican international Oribe Peralta registering his lowest output (3) since the Apertura 2010.
In the case of Pumas, the onus will be on Nico Castillo to provide the goals, with his 11 strikes this term accounting for nearly half of his team’s total (23). Although stopping Castillo, one of the league’s best players, is easier said than done, América has a considerable advantage when it comes to experience in the Liguilla, with coach Miguel Herrera having won a league title with the team in the Clausura 2013. In contrast, Pumas coach David Patiño will be participating in only his second Liguilla, an experience gap that could mean América wins the tactical battle and, by extension, the tie.
Prediction: América advances
•Monterrey (3) vs. Tijuana (6)
Result of Clausura 2018 Matchup: 0-0 in Estadio BBVA Bancomer (Round 3)
The league’s best offense (Monterrey) goes up against the best defense in a tie where Rayados are expected to advance. The pressure is on Monterrey, who lost the Apertura 2017 Final to local rivals Tigres, with new signing Áviles Hurtado missing a late penalty in the second leg that would have sent the tie to extra time. They are expected to go one better this Liguilla and win their first league title since the Apertura 2010. Given the absence of starting center-forward Rogelio Funes Mori for this matchup, the goal-scoring burden will fall even more heavily upon ex-Tijuana man Hurtado’s shoulders.
Although Tijuana have only conceded 12 times this season and will play their home leg on the challenging turf surface of the Estadio Caliente, their goal-scoring record away from home could doom them in this matchup. Xolos have only scored one away goal all season, which came in their last away match against Club León. If Monterrey can get an away goal in the Estadio Caliente and force Tijuana to score in the Estadio BBVA Bancomer, the result of this tie should end up in favor of the higher seed.
Prediction: Monterrey advances
•Santos (4) vs. Tigres (5)
Result of Clausura 2018 Matchup: 2-1 Tigres (Round 2)
The defending champions go up against the league’s most improved side in Santos, whose 29 points won in this Clausura 2018 are 11 more than the 18 they gained the previous tournament. The improved fortunes of the Laguneros have been based on their goal-scoring exploits, as they are the second-most prolific side in this tournament. Santos also possess the league’s top goalscorer in Djaniny Tavares, whose 14 goals have seen him double his previous highest output. However, they will be without key midfielder Osvaldo Martínez for the first leg after he was sent off in the last round of the regular season against América. Starting center back Nestor Araujo is also out with a knee injury suffered while on international duty with Mexico. In contrast, Tigres can’t find room in their starting eleven for players of the caliber of Ismael Sosa, who is regularly joined on the bench by either Edu Vargas or Enner Valencia. Furthermore, although Djaniny has been decisive this regular season, he will be going up against a proven Liguilla performer in Tigres forward Andre-Pierre Gignac, who has 18 goals in 26 playoff games. Between their superior depth and vast experience in Liguillas, Tigres should have enough to overcome Los Laguneros.
Prediction: Tigres advances
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